Supertree and Sensitivity

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Version 10.41 of Supertree is now available. Click here  for details and click here for downloading.

The fourth edition of Decision Analysis for the Professional is now available. Click here for details.

DECISION ANALYSIS SOFTWARE

Decision analysis is a comprehensive process for making sound decisions in the face of uncertainty. Sensitivity® and Supertree® are powerful software packages designed to help decision analysts make the most of the decision analysis process. Sensitivity identifies critical uncertain inputs to spreadsheet decision models, and Supertree analyzes decision trees, taking into account the critical uncertainties. In combination with spreadsheet models, these programs automate the decision analysis process, helping the analyst to generate insights that lead to better decisions.

Sensitivity analysis identifies the uncertainties that are most important to consider when making a decision. The analysis starts by constructing a spreadsheet model to compute the consequences (e.g., profit) associated with each decision alternative. Typically, the model has several uncertain input variables.

Sensitivity determines which of these uncertain inputs are major contributors to the risk associated with each decision alternative. It does this by replacing baseline values for each variable in the spreadsheet model with high and low values and then calculating the resulting “swing” in model outputs. Results are displayed graphically as a “tornado diagram” (see illustration) or in numerical form. These critical uncertainties are then analyzed using the Supertree program.

Developed by the founders of decision analysis, Supertree is one of the most widely used professional decision analysis computer programs. The program evaluates decision trees, determines the risk associated with any decision alternative in the tree, and identifies the best alternative for decision makers. Using prompts and easy-to-understand input screens, the program guides the construction, evaluation, and analysis of decision tree models.

Supertree provides a powerful set of tools to portray uncertainty graphically, perform sensitivity analyses, and obtain the value of information and of control.

 

Special Features

Links with Microsoft Excel and other spreadsheet programs
Links with Powersim Constructor, a system dynamics program
Evaluates single and joint sensitivities (simultaneous changes in two or more dependent variables)
Allows user to import data from an input table (like Risk Detective—a feature for Excel spreadsheets only)
Evaluates sensitivities for more than one output variable
Plots “tornado diagrams”

Special Features

Links with Microsoft Excel and other spreadsheet programs
Links with Powersim Constructor, a system dynamics program
Handles large decision trees. Has options to display schematic and full tree structure 
Calculates expected values, expected utilities and determines the optimal decision based on a specified risk attitude 
Automatically re-orders tree nodes to calculate values of information and control 
Calculates and plots sensitivities to probabilities and attitude toward risk 
Displays probability distributions in histogram, cumulative, “flying bar,” and tabular form 
Computes results for multiple output variables (e.g., impact on NPV and manufacturing costs)

Supertree  and Sensitivity  are trademarks of SmartOrg, Inc. All other products mentioned are registered trademarks or trademarks of their respective companies.

Questions or problems regarding this web site should be directed to pmcnamee@smartorg.com .
Copyright © 2009  SmartOrg, Inc. All rights reserved.