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Version 10.41 of Supertree is
now available. Click here for details and
click here for downloading.
The fourth edition of Decision Analysis for the
Professional is now available. Click here for details.
DECISION ANALYSIS SOFTWARE
Decision analysis is a comprehensive process for
making sound decisions in the face of uncertainty. Sensitivity® and Supertree®
are powerful software packages designed to help decision analysts make the most
of the decision analysis process. Sensitivity identifies critical uncertain
inputs to spreadsheet decision models, and Supertree analyzes decision trees,
taking into account the critical uncertainties. In combination with spreadsheet
models, these programs automate the decision analysis process, helping the
analyst to generate insights that lead to better decisions.
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Sensitivity analysis identifies the uncertainties that are most
important to consider when making a decision. The analysis starts by
constructing a spreadsheet model to compute the consequences (e.g., profit)
associated with each decision alternative. Typically, the model has several
uncertain input variables.
Sensitivity determines which of these uncertain inputs are major
contributors to the risk associated with each decision alternative. It does
this by replacing baseline values for each variable in the spreadsheet model
with high and low values and then calculating the resulting “swing” in model
outputs. Results are displayed graphically as a “tornado diagram” (see
illustration) or in numerical form. These critical uncertainties are then
analyzed using the Supertree program.
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Developed by the founders of decision analysis, Supertree is one
of the most widely used professional decision analysis computer programs. The
program evaluates decision trees, determines the risk associated with any
decision alternative in the tree, and identifies the best alternative for
decision makers. Using prompts and easy-to-understand input screens, the
program guides the construction, evaluation, and analysis of decision tree
models.
Supertree provides a powerful set of tools to portray uncertainty
graphically, perform sensitivity analyses, and obtain the value of information
and of control.
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Special Features
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Links
with Microsoft Excel and other spreadsheet programs |
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Links
with Powersim Constructor, a system dynamics program |
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Evaluates
single and joint sensitivities (simultaneous changes in two or more dependent
variables) |
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Allows
user to import data from an input table (like Risk Detective—a feature for
Excel spreadsheets only) |
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Evaluates
sensitivities for more than one output variable |
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Plots
“tornado diagrams” |
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Special Features
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Links
with Microsoft Excel and other spreadsheet programs |
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Links
with Powersim Constructor, a system dynamics program |
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Handles
large decision trees. Has options to display schematic and full tree
structure |
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Calculates
expected values, expected utilities and determines the optimal decision based
on a specified risk attitude |
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Automatically
re-orders tree nodes to calculate values of information and control |
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Calculates
and plots sensitivities to probabilities and attitude toward risk |
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Displays
probability distributions in histogram, cumulative, “flying bar,” and tabular
form |
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Computes
results for multiple output variables (e.g., impact on NPV and manufacturing
costs) |
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