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Decision Analysis For The Professional

Fourth Edition

By Peter McNamee and John Celona

To be successful in these turbulent times, management must understand how to cope with risk and uncertainty. This book captures the authors' decades of experience in applying decision analysis to risky, complex real-world decisions, often with hundreds of millions or billions of dollars at stake.

Since the book was first published in 1988, there has been a dramatic evolution in the practice of decision analysis. The number of companies using decision analysis has grown rapidly. Experience with these companies has shown that practical as well as analytical skills are needed for successful implementation of a decision analysis program.

The book will be of interest to professional practitioners as well as executives and managers who must make difficult choices in an uncertain world.


Chapter 1: Introduction 

Part I: Decision Making

Chapter 2: Uncertainty and Probability

Chapter 3: Decisions Under Uncertainty

Chapter 4: Probabilistic Dependence

Chapter 5: Attitudes Toward Risk Taking 

Part II: Dealing with Complex Problems 

Chapter 6: The Complexity of Real-World Problems 

Chapter 7: Typical Corporate Applications of Decision Analysis 

Part III: Corporate Decision Making 

Chapter 8: A Decision Making Process

Chapter 9: Decision Quality

Part IV: Advanced Topics 

Chapter 10: Probability Theory

Chapter 11: Influence Diagram Theory

Chapter 12: Encoding a Probability Distribution

Problems included with each chapter are intended to stimulate discussion as well as to illustrate the applications of decision analysis to real situations. An Instructor's Guide is available as well as guides to using various software packages to perform the analyses in the book.

To order: Orders may be placed directly through SmartOrg by telephone at 650.470.0120 or by email at

A description of how to apply Supertree® and Sensitivity® software to the examples in the book can be found on the Tutorials page.

The corrections to some minor errors in the third edition of the book can be found by clicking here.

Decision Analysis for the Professional was titled Decision Analysis with Supertree in its second edition.

Supertree  and Sensitivity  are trademarks of SmartOrg, Inc. All other products mentioned are registered trademarks or trademarks of their respective companies.

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